SpaceX Stock Hits New Low as $123 Billion Lockup Expiry Looms

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) have fallen to a new 52-week low, extending a sharp decline since the company's public debut six weeks ago. The stock is under significant pressure as investors anticipate the expiration of a post-IPO lockup period in early August, which could release a massive wave of shares onto the market.

Stock Performance and Lockup Details

SpaceX shares touched a 52-week low of $115.19 on July 22, representing a 26.17% decline over the past month. The stock is now trading 14.6% below its $135 initial public offering price, having erased approximately $280 billion from its peak market capitalization of roughly $1.8 trillion.

The most significant near-term headwind for the stock is an impending lockup expiry tied to the company's first quarterly earnings report. According to a Reuters analysis, the event will have the following impact:

• 911.5 million shares, valued at approximately $123 billion at the IPO price, will become eligible for sale.
• An additional 455.8 million shares have an unlock threshold of $175.50, a level that appears distant from the stock's current price.

Wall Street's Divided Outlook

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Analysts are divided on the company's prospects, reflecting the conflict between near-term challenges and long-term potential. While the consensus rating leans bullish with 26 Buy ratings, several firms have expressed caution. Piper Sandler initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $156 price target, citing the staged lockup expirations and uncertainty surrounding a potential merger with Tesla as key concerns.

In contrast, Bernstein SocGen holds an Outperform rating with a price target of $239, implying more than 100% upside. Meanwhile, InvestingPro's fair value model suggests the stock may still be overvalued, calculating a fair price of $111.37, which is below its recent trading levels. The stock currently trades at a high multiple of 49 times expected revenue.

Long-Term Vision and Merger Speculation

The long-term bull case for SpaceX often centers on its ambitious plans for orbital AI data centers. A July 14 report from Deutsche Bank suggested that the company's "Starmind" constellation could achieve cost parity with terrestrial data centers by the early 2030s through its vertically integrated manufacturing and Starship launch capabilities.

Adding to the complexity is renewed speculation about a merger with Tesla (TSLA). On Tesla's July 22 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk did not dismiss the possibility, highlighting growing operational overlaps in batteries, manufacturing, and AI chips. While Gene Munster of Deepwater has placed 90% odds on an eventual combination, analysts at JPMorgan have flagged significant hurdles, including potential regulatory challenges in China and complex governance issues.