SpaceX Stock Hits All-Time Low Ahead of $123 Billion Lockup Expiry

SpaceX (SPCX) shares have fallen to an all-time low, trading nearly 50% below their post-initial public offering peak, as investors brace for a massive lockup expiry in early August. A potential supply shock of over 900 million shares looms over the stock, creating significant near-term uncertainty for the aerospace company.

The $123 Billion Overhang

The primary risk facing SpaceX investors is the expiration of a post-IPO lockup agreement tied to its upcoming earnings report. Following the company's Q2 2026 results on August 4, a total of 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale by pre-IPO holders, including employees and early investors.

This tranche represents a market value of approximately $123 billion based on the IPO price, according to the source material. The potential influx of such a large volume of shares could create substantial selling pressure. Underscoring market caution, SpaceX was ranked as the 9th most-shorted U.S. stock, with $25 billion in bets against it, equivalent to about 29% of its float.

Valuation Under Pressure

Since its public debut, the stock has seen significant volatility. At a recent price of $115.26, it marked a 52-week low, representing a -14.6% decline from its $135 IPO price and a steep -48.9% drop from its post-IPO high of $225.64.

Ad

The company's valuation remains a key debate amid a lack of profitability. SpaceX reported a loss per share of -$1.19 for the first quarter of 2026. An InvestingPro analysis cited in the source puts the stock's fair value at $111.37, suggesting it may still be slightly overvalued despite the sharp correction.

Diverging Analyst Views

Despite the bearish technical setup, some analysts see long-term potential driven by strong top-line growth and new ventures. Annual revenue estimates are up 24.6% year-over-year, and analysts at Macquarie noted "significant upside from AI optionality" related to the Starlink ecosystem.

Speculation about a potential merger with Tesla (TSLA) adds another variable. The source highlights that CEO Elon Musk did not dismiss the idea on a recent Tesla earnings call. However, near-term concerns persist, with analysts having cut EPS revisions by -46.2% over the last 30 days. The wide dispersion in price targets, from Piper Sandler's Neutral rating at $156 to Bernstein SocGen's Outperform at $239, reflects the deep uncertainty facing the stock ahead of the August 4 inflection point.