SpaceX Shares Linger Near Lows as Investors Await Lockup Expiration

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. are trading near all-time lows, down significantly since their public debut, as investors grapple with conflicting valuation metrics and a looming increase in share supply.

Diverging Valuations and Price Performance

As of July 31, 2026, SpaceX stock was priced at $109.49, just 2% above its 52-week low of $107.01. The price represents a 19% decline from its initial public offering price of $135 just six weeks ago.

Valuation estimates for the company show a stark divergence, highlighting significant market uncertainty. Key figures include:

• InvestingPro Fair Value: $99.87, implying potential downside of 8.8% from the current price.
• Mean Analyst Target: $236.71, suggesting a potential upside of 116%.
• Analyst Target Range: A wide spread from a low of $62 to a high of $800 per share.

This broad range in professional forecasts underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of the stock and the difficulty in establishing a consensus valuation for the capital-intensive space exploration and satellite internet business.

Impending Lockup Expiry Creates Overhang

Ad

A major factor weighing on the stock is the upcoming expiration of the post-IPO lockup period in early August. This event will allow 911.5 million shares to become freely tradable, according to Investing.com data. At the IPO price, this block of shares was valued at approximately $123 billion.

The potential for a sudden, massive increase in the supply of stock available on the open market creates a significant overhang. Investors are watching to see if early investors and insiders will sell their holdings, which could exert further downward pressure on the share price.

Fundamental Headwinds and Future Catalysts

Beyond market mechanics, the company's financial fundamentals present a mixed picture. SpaceX was not profitable over the last twelve months, reporting a net loss of -$4.94 billion for fiscal year 2025. The company also carries a high debt-to-equity ratio of 950%, a key risk factor for investors.

Looking ahead, market participants are focused on several potential catalysts. The company's next earnings report is scheduled for August 4, and any breakthroughs or setbacks related to its Starship or Starlink projects could heavily influence investor sentiment. How the stock absorbs the new supply of shares following the lockup expiration will be a critical test in the coming weeks.