S&P Revises Cemex Outlook to Positive on Lower Debt, Strong Earnings

S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:CX) to positive from stable, citing the cement producer's strong operational performance and success in reducing its debt load. The agency affirmed Cemex's 'BBB-' issuer credit rating, indicating that a future upgrade is possible if the company maintains its improved financial metrics.

Key Metrics Drive Outlook Change

The revision was underpinned by Cemex's strengthening credit metrics. In the first half of 2026, the company reported an S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.5x, with funds from operations (FFO) to debt near 30%. Free operating cash flow to debt stood above 15%.

This improved financial position was driven by robust earnings growth. Cemex's EBITDA grew nearly 27% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year, reaching $1.8 billion. S&P projects the company's full-year EBITDA will rise to almost $3.6 billion in 2026 and $3.7 billion in 2027.

Proactive Balance Sheet Management

Cemex has recently undertaken several strategic financial actions. In June, the company completed a series of liability management transactions, including issuing $1.5 billion in new senior notes and opening a $3.0 billion revolving credit facility. These moves helped repay approximately $1.8 billion in bank loans and redeem $1.0 billion of subordinated perpetual notes.

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Alongside its deleveraging efforts, Cemex is also returning more capital to shareholders. The company raised its ordinary dividend by 40% to $180 million for 2026 and initiated a share buyback program of up to $500 million over the next three years. Additionally, Cemex plans to divest part of its Colombia operations for $485 million by the end of 2026.

Path to an Upgrade

The positive outlook reflects the potential for a credit rating upgrade over the next 12 to 24 months. S&P stated that an upgrade could occur if Cemex consistently maintains its adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 3.0x and its FFO-to-debt ratio above 30% through industry cycles.

Conversely, the ratings agency noted it could revise the outlook back to stable if the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio rises back to 3.0x or above on a sustained basis, or if its FFO-to-debt metric falls below the 30% threshold.