Samsung Poised to Exceed Q2 HBM Revenue Estimates, Bernstein Analysis Suggests

Samsung Electronics' second-quarter revenue from high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is on track to significantly outperform expectations, driven by a dramatic surge in exports, according to a Bernstein research note published Monday. The analysis of South Korean trade data suggests the tech giant is making substantial gains in the critical market for advanced AI memory chips.

Samsung's Export Surge

Bernstein highlighted exceptionally strong export figures from South Chungcheong Province, where Samsung's HBM packaging facilities are located. Key data points from the region include:

• June exports doubled month-over-month.
• Second-quarter exports for 2026 rose 75% compared to the first quarter.

Based on a regression analysis of this data, Bernstein now projects Samsung’s Q2 HBM revenue will climb 89% quarter-over-quarter to $6.7 billion, a figure that exceeds the firm's prior model. The analysis also noted that the "value per weight" of Samsung's shipments grew 30% month-over-month in June, which Bernstein attributes to a ramp-up of next-generation HBM4 memory rather than a broad price increase.

Market-Wide HBM Growth

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The data points to a robust expansion for the entire South Korean HBM sector. Overall HBM exports from the country reached a record high in June, rising 46% compared to March. For the second quarter as a whole, total exports increased 39% quarter-over-quarter.

Competitor SK hynix also saw continued growth, with exports from its key regions recovering 11% month-over-month in June and rising 5% for the second quarter. Bernstein predicts SK hynix’s Q2 HBM revenue will grow 25% quarter-over-quarter to $7.6 billion, which is in line with the firm's existing forecast. Unlike Samsung, the value per weight for SK hynix's shipments remained flat in June.

Implications for Investors

The strong export trend, particularly for Samsung, underscores the booming demand for HBM, which is essential for training and running artificial intelligence models. Samsung's outsized growth suggests it is rapidly capturing market share and may be advancing its product mix more quickly than competitors.

Investors will be closely watching the official second-quarter earnings reports from both Samsung and SK hynix to see if these strong export figures translate directly into reported revenue and improved profitability for their respective semiconductor divisions.