Moncler Stock Jumps as Bernstein Upgrades on Valuation Reset

Shares in Italian luxury group Moncler (MONC) jumped 4% on Thursday after analysts at Bernstein upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market-Perform. The firm cited a significant valuation reset that it believes has already accounted for near-term challenges.

Bernstein maintained its price target of €57.50 on the shares. The upgrade follows a period of underperformance that has pushed Moncler's valuation close to its historical post-IPO low, according to the bank's note.

Expectations Reset

The core of Bernstein's thesis is that much of the negative news is now reflected in the stock price. Analyst Luca Solca noted that the decline from the year's peak is in line with historical seasonal patterns, combined with a broader de-rating across the luxury sector.

Weakness in Europe, driven by unusually warm weather, is expected to persist in the third quarter. However, Bernstein argues this is largely priced in, pointing out that consensus expectations for EMEA constant-currency growth in Q3 have been slashed by 11 percentage points since the last earnings report, from +4.5% to -6.6%.

Regional Bright Spots

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While Europe remains a challenge, Bernstein highlighted solid growth trends in other key markets. The firm sees healthy momentum across Asia, supported by strong demand indicators in Japan, Korea, and China. In the United States, the recent opening of a flagship store on Fifth Avenue in New York "could create a halo effect across the broader business in coming quarters," Solca wrote.

Bernstein also noted a positive turnaround for the company's Stone Island brand, which is "transforming at last from a problem into an opportunity." The brand has delivered double-digit organic sales growth over the last three quarters, fueled by strong performance in Asia.

Weather Remains Key Risk

Weather continues to be the primary swing factor for the outerwear specialist. Bernstein identified an extended warm autumn in Europe as the main near-term downside risk, while a sharp cooling into the fourth quarter would serve as a positive catalyst.

The firm stated it has not built a favorable winter scenario into its forecasts, keeping its earnings estimates and valuation multiple unchanged with the upgrade. Bernstein's adjusted earnings-per-share estimates stand at €2.31 for 2025 and €2.46 for 2026.