Macquarie Holds Telstra, TPG Ratings Amid New ACCC Mobile Roaming Inquiry

Macquarie is holding its ratings steady on Telstra (ASX:TLS) and TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) as Australia’s competition regulator launches a new inquiry into regional mobile network access. The review could significantly alter the competitive dynamics of the nation's telecommunications sector, according to a research note from the investment bank.

ACCC Launches New Inquiry

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has initiated its fourth review of regional mobile access, a process expected to last approximately 12 months. Macquarie noted that the inquiry began without a specific trigger event, highlighting that domestic roaming has been a persistent policy issue.

The regulator will consult with industry participants and regional communities before making a decision on whether to mandate access. The last such review, which concluded in 2017, did not result in regulation, as the ACCC determined at the time it would not serve the long-term interests of consumers.

Potential Market Impact

According to Macquarie, mandated access would diminish the significant regional network advantage held by Telstra, which is a key element of its brand strength. As the operator with the largest network footprint, Telstra would likely be the primary access provider, potentially weakening its competitive position.

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Conversely, the move could strengthen coverage and competition for TPG Telecom and other operators seeking access to Telstra's infrastructure. Telstra is expected to argue that regulation would reduce incentives for future network investment, which may not benefit consumers over the long term.

Context and Analyst Ratings

Macquarie said the ACCC is revisiting the issue due to several market changes since the 2017 review, including:

• The proposed UOMO (Usage on Other Mobile Operator) framework.
• The emergence of direct-to-device satellite technology.
• The mobile core network agreement between Optus and TPG.

In light of the inquiry and its potential outcomes, Macquarie maintained its Neutral rating on Telstra and its Outperform rating on TPG Telecom. The bank noted that Optus, which opposed regulated roaming in the previous inquiry, has an unclear stance now following its network deal with TPG, a partnership that has already reduced some regional network differentiation.