LVMH Stock Hits Five-Year Low on China Luxury Spending Concerns

Shares of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) tumbled 2.4% to €428.35 in recent trading, hitting their lowest level in five years. The sell-off was triggered by a research note from Bernstein cautioning that preliminary third-quarter data indicates a pause in the recovery of luxury spending by Chinese consumers.

Bernstein Trims Forecasts

Analysts at Bernstein revised their outlook for the luxury sector, creating downward pressure on LVMH and its peers. The firm lowered its Q3 industry organic growth forecast to 4.9%, a notable decrease from the 6.3% growth seen in the second quarter.

Specifically for LVMH, Bernstein trimmed its organic sales growth estimates for 2026 and 2027 by 66 basis points. The broker also reduced its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the luxury conglomerate by 1% for 2026 and 6.1% for 2027. Despite the near-term revisions, Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on the stock with a price target of €570.

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Structural Challenges in China

The report highlighted a deeper issue for the group's critical fashion and leather goods division. Bernstein noted that sustaining growth will likely require the flagship Louis Vuitton brand to re-engage with middle-class "aspirational shoppers." This concern is supported by data showing that LVMH's luxury spending from Chinese consumers was effectively flat in the first half of 2026.

Furthermore, the note pointed to a shift in consumer preferences within China, with shoppers showing more interest in prestige beauty products over leather goods. The selling pressure was felt across the sector, with Bernstein also cutting growth forecasts for rivals Kering and Hermès. The firm named Richemont as its top sector pick, citing the relative resilience of its jewelry brands in mainland China.