Story
J.P. Morgan Lifts Price Targets for ING and ABN Amro on ECB Rate Outlook
Summary
J.P. Morgan has raised its earnings forecasts and price targets for Dutch banks ING and ABN Amro, citing a higher projected interest rate path from the European Central Bank and strong fee income.
J.P. Morgan has raised its price targets and earnings forecasts for Dutch lenders ING Groep and ABN Amro Bank NV, citing an anticipated higher interest rate path from the European Central Bank and robust fee momentum. The bank's analysts upgraded their outlook for both financial institutions in a note published Friday, ahead of their upcoming second-quarter results.
Upgraded Outlook
The revisions reflect a more optimistic view on the banks' core profitability, driven by the macroeconomic environment. Higher interest rates typically boost a bank's net interest income (NII), which is the difference between revenue generated from loans and the interest paid out to depositors.
J.P. Morgan's new price targets and ratings are as follows:
- ING Groep: The December 2027 price target was lifted to €31.30 from €28.90, with an “Overweight” rating maintained.
- ABN Amro: The target was increased to €39.40 from €34.60, while its “Neutral” rating was reaffirmed.
The updated analysis incorporates a revised ECB rate forecast, which now assumes a 25 basis point hike in September 2026 followed by a 25 basis point cut in the third quarter of 2027.
ING Forecasts Raised
AdFor ING, J.P. Morgan increased its earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by 4% for 2026, 5% for 2027, and 2% for 2028. The analysts stated that the market may be underestimating ING's NII growth potential and the "stickiness" of its retail deposit franchise.
The broker's 2026 forecast for ING's commercial NII is now €16.85 billion, which is above the company's own guidance. Fees and commissions are projected to rise 10% year-on-year to €5.05 billion in 2026. Ahead of the earnings release, J.P. Morgan projects ING's second-quarter pre-tax profit at €2.72 billion, 2% above the Bloomberg consensus.
ABN Amro Estimates Increased
ABN Amro also saw significant upward revisions to its earnings forecasts based on the higher rate assumptions. J.P. Morgan raised its EPS estimates for the bank by 3% for 2026, 8% for 2027, and 5% for 2028.
These new estimates place J.P. Morgan's forecasts between 1% and 4% above the Bloomberg consensus for those years. The broker projects ABN Amro’s 2026 commercial NII will be €6.65 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of €6.4 billion. For the second quarter, the bank is expected to report a pre-tax profit of €969 million, which is 7% above consensus expectations.
Read next
More on Stocks
Mexican Stocks Rise 1.45% as Industrial and Consumer Shares Lead Gains
Mexico's benchmark S&P/BMV IPC index closed significantly higher on Tuesday, lifted by strong performance in the industrial, consumer goods, and staples sectors. The gains occurred even as the Mexican peso saw a slight decline against the U.S. dollar.
Apollo Caps Withdrawals From Private Credit Fund as Redemption Requests Hit 14.7%
The asset manager will limit redemptions from its Apollo Debt Solutions BDC for the third consecutive quarter after withdrawal requests outpaced the fund's 5% quarterly cap, reflecting broader liquidity pressures in the private credit market.
AB InBev to Launch Protein-Enhanced Beer, New Pack Sizes to Combat Shifting Tastes
The world's largest brewer announced plans to adapt its product lineup with new formulations and packaging to address slowing beer sales and changing consumer habits, including a push into non-beer categories.
Live Oak Acquisition Corp. VI Prices $200 Million IPO on Nasdaq
Live Oak Acquisition Corp. VI, a special purpose acquisition company, has priced its initial public offering of 20 million units at $10.00 each, raising $200 million. The units are scheduled to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker 'LOVIU'.