J.P. Morgan Lifts Price Targets for ING and ABN Amro on ECB Rate Outlook

J.P. Morgan has raised its price targets and earnings forecasts for Dutch lenders ING Groep and ABN Amro Bank NV, citing an anticipated higher interest rate path from the European Central Bank and robust fee momentum. The bank's analysts upgraded their outlook for both financial institutions in a note published Friday, ahead of their upcoming second-quarter results.

Upgraded Outlook

The revisions reflect a more optimistic view on the banks' core profitability, driven by the macroeconomic environment. Higher interest rates typically boost a bank's net interest income (NII), which is the difference between revenue generated from loans and the interest paid out to depositors.

J.P. Morgan's new price targets and ratings are as follows:

• ING Groep: The December 2027 price target was lifted to €31.30 from €28.90, with an “Overweight” rating maintained.
• ABN Amro: The target was increased to €39.40 from €34.60, while its “Neutral” rating was reaffirmed.

The updated analysis incorporates a revised ECB rate forecast, which now assumes a 25 basis point hike in September 2026 followed by a 25 basis point cut in the third quarter of 2027.

ING Forecasts Raised

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For ING, J.P. Morgan increased its earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by 4% for 2026, 5% for 2027, and 2% for 2028. The analysts stated that the market may be underestimating ING's NII growth potential and the "stickiness" of its retail deposit franchise.

The broker's 2026 forecast for ING's commercial NII is now €16.85 billion, which is above the company's own guidance. Fees and commissions are projected to rise 10% year-on-year to €5.05 billion in 2026. Ahead of the earnings release, J.P. Morgan projects ING's second-quarter pre-tax profit at €2.72 billion, 2% above the Bloomberg consensus.

ABN Amro Estimates Increased

ABN Amro also saw significant upward revisions to its earnings forecasts based on the higher rate assumptions. J.P. Morgan raised its EPS estimates for the bank by 3% for 2026, 8% for 2027, and 5% for 2028.

These new estimates place J.P. Morgan's forecasts between 1% and 4% above the Bloomberg consensus for those years. The broker projects ABN Amro’s 2026 commercial NII will be €6.65 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of €6.4 billion. For the second quarter, the bank is expected to report a pre-tax profit of €969 million, which is 7% above consensus expectations.