Goldman Sachs Backs Hilton, Marriott, and Hyatt on Strong US Travel Demand Ahead of Earnings

Goldman Sachs has identified Hilton, Marriott, and Hyatt as its top lodging stocks heading into the second-quarter earnings season, maintaining Buy ratings on all three. The investment bank's positive outlook is driven by expectations of strong domestic performance, which it believes will counterbalance headwinds from weaker international markets, particularly China.

US Strength Offsets Global Weakness

According to a note from Goldman Sachs, the key metric of revenue per available room (RevPAR) is showing significant strength in the United States. This robust domestic growth has prompted the bank to raise its Q2 RevPAR forecasts for the major hotel operators.

As a result of the upward revisions, Goldman Sachs now projects all three companies will track at the high end of their previously issued systemwide RevPAR guidance ranges for the full year 2026.

Updated Company Forecasts

Goldman Sachs provided updated estimates for each of its top picks, highlighting the impact of strong U.S. consumer and business travel.

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• Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT): The bank raised its Q2 systemwide RevPAR growth forecast to 3.3% from a prior 2.5%, citing Hilton's high exposure to the U.S. market. Goldman now models Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1,036 million and sees full-year 2026 RevPAR growth at 3.0%, the high end of Hilton's outlook.
• Marriott International (MAR): Despite what it termed "mixed investor sentiment," Goldman lifted its Q2 systemwide RevPAR growth outlook to 3.3% from 2.1%, driven by a North American forecast of 5.6%. The firm projects Q2 adjusted EBITDA at $1,555 million and full-year RevPAR growth of 3.0%.
• Hyatt (H): Following recent outperformance since its investor day, Goldman expects Hyatt to reach the high end of its guidance. The bank increased its Q2 systemwide RevPAR growth estimate to 3.9% from 3.1% and now models Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $289 million. Its full-year RevPAR estimate was raised to 3.6%.

Context for Investors

The analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests that for these multinational lodging companies, the health of the U.S. market is currently the primary driver of performance. Investors will be watching the upcoming earnings reports closely to see if the strong domestic trends officially materialize and are sufficient to offset the softness reported in other regions.

Other analysts have also recently adjusted their views, with the source material noting that firms like UBS, Stifel, and Mizuho have issued positive commentary or price target increases for Marriott and Hyatt, lending further weight to the sector's positive domestic narrative.