Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Earnings to Test Diverging Fortunes in GLP-1 Market

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will report quarterly earnings before the market opens this Wednesday, August 5, in a highly anticipated event for the pharmaceutical sector. The results are expected to highlight the starkly different trajectories of the two leaders in the booming market for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, with Eli Lilly riding a wave of momentum while Novo Nordisk faces significant headwinds.

A Tale of Two Trajectories

Investor expectations for the two companies are sharply divided. Eli Lilly (LLY), which recently surpassed a $1 trillion market capitalization and has seen its stock rise 50.7% over the past year, faces a high bar. Analysts expect the company to report Q2 revenue of $20.65 billion, a 33% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share (EPS) of $6.06.

In contrast, Novo Nordisk (NVO) has struggled, with its stock declining 8.78% on Friday alone. The consensus estimate for its full-year 2026 revenue is $44.46 billion, which is notably below its actual 2025 revenue of $48.83 billion, signaling that the market is pricing in a potential contraction for the GLP-1 pioneer.

Key Metrics Under Scrutiny

Investors will be scrutinizing several key data points beyond the headline revenue and earnings figures to assess the competitive landscape.

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• Prescription Volume: The market share battle between Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy is a central focus. According to IQVIA data, Zepbound injections already command more than double the weekly prescriptions of Wegovy. A critical data point for Novo will be the sales performance of its oral version of Wegovy, which was launched in January and is reportedly holding a lead over Lilly's oral alternative.
• Forward Guidance: Eli Lilly is widely expected to raise its full-year forecast. Bernstein analysts project a guidance increase of at least $1.5 billion from the current $82 billion–$85 billion range. For Novo Nordisk, which issued four guidance cuts in 2025, the primary goal is to avoid another downward revision.
• Manufacturing Capacity: Both companies have faced supply bottlenecks due to immense demand. Updates on Eli Lilly’s manufacturing expansions, including over $55 billion in committed U.S. capital expenditures since 2020, will be critical. Likewise, any commentary from Novo Nordisk on scaling up production for its oral drug could be a significant catalyst.

Pipeline and Asymmetric Risks

Looking ahead, Eli Lilly's pipeline appears robust, with its next-generation drug, retatrutide, showing promising Phase 3 trial results. The triple-agonist drug demonstrated an average body weight loss of 22.6%, meaningfully higher than Wegovy’s roughly 15%. Investors will parse management commentary for details on its launch strategy, with an FDA filing planned for Q1 2027.

Novo Nordisk also faces legal challenges, including a securities fraud class-action lawsuit and a separate false advertising suit it filed against Lilly. The market has priced in a significant amount of negative news for Novo, creating an asymmetric risk profile. While Eli Lilly must deliver a flawless report to justify its premium valuation, Novo Nordisk may only need to stabilize its outlook to trigger a relief rally in its stock.