Bernstein Eyes Strong Q2 for European Logistics on Supply Chain Woes

Analysts at Bernstein have highlighted four major European logistics companies to watch as the second-quarter earnings season unfolds, citing ongoing supply chain disruptions and strong demand as key tailwinds for the sector. The firm's analysis points to companies demonstrating margin expansion and operational resilience in a complex market.

Sector Tailwinds and Key Metrics

According to Bernstein, logistical complexity in the Middle East continues to support air freight yields, benefiting air and sea forwarding operations. Simultaneously, robust demand has led to a strengthening of container shipping rates, providing a favorable backdrop for the industry's largest players.

In this environment, the investment firm is focusing on operational execution, cost efficiency, and progress on strategic integrations as key differentiators among peers. The upcoming earnings reports are expected to provide further clarity on which companies are most effectively capitalizing on these market conditions.

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Company-Specific Outlooks

Bernstein provided commentary on four key firms, two of which have already upgraded their annual forecasts ahead of their full reports:

• DSV: The firm anticipates a meaningful quarter-over-quarter improvement in earnings and margins, with Air & Sea conversion margins likely to exceed 40%. Bernstein noted that cost reductions from integration are expected to progress and sees a potential for a "cost-drive earnings inflection" in the stock.
• Kuehne+Nagel: Bernstein's view is slightly ahead of consensus for the third quarter, largely due to a more constructive outlook on airfreight yields. The firm will be watching the company's execution quality as it normalizes after recent cost reductions and its efforts to demonstrate profitability gains from artificial intelligence.
• DHL: The company published preliminary Q2 results on July 7, beating consensus EBIT by approximately €300 million. Consequently, DHL raised its 2026 EBIT guidance by the same amount and now expects full-year EBIT to exceed €6.5 billion. The outperformance was driven by its Express division, which benefited from air cargo capacity constraints.
• Maersk: On June 30, Maersk significantly raised its full-year 2026 guidance. The shipping giant now expects underlying EBITDA of $8 billion to $10 billion, up from a previous range of $4.5 billion to $7 billion. The company also increased its outlook for total container trade growth for the year from 2-4% to 4%.