Teleperformance Shares Fall After JPMorgan Warns on 2026 Outlook

Shares of Teleperformance (TEPRF) fell as much as 6% on Tuesday after analysts at JPMorgan reiterated a bearish stance on the stock, warning of further downside risk to the company's 2026 financial estimates.

JPMorgan Flags Risk to Estimates

JPMorgan analysts stated that despite recent downgrades by the market, they believe 2026 consensus expectations for Teleperformance remain too high. The bank's own forecasts sit 2% below consensus on operating EBITA and 12% below on free cash flow for 2026.

In a note to clients, the bank set a price target of €44, which implies a potential 20% downside from current trading levels. The analysts highlighted ongoing challenges as the company navigates a major business transition.

AI Transition and Cost Pressures

According to JPMorgan, Teleperformance has been a "business in transition" since the rise of generative AI in 2022. The company is shifting its focus toward a "premium" human-agent customer experience market while simultaneously developing AI-integrated support services.

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However, the bank expressed caution about whether these new growth areas can sufficiently offset ongoing pressure in its core business. Analysts also pointed to the risk of higher operating and capital expenditures, as well as restructuring costs, tied to AI investments and workforce reductions. These factors could weigh on the company's margins and free cash flow generation in 2026 and beyond.

Dividend Sustainability in Focus

JPMorgan noted that Teleperformance's dividend provides some support for its shares, with the stock trading at a dividend yield of roughly 9% for 2026. Analysts believe the company's "strong cash conversion characteristics" will allow it to maintain its progressive dividend policy through 2027.

Still, they warned that a dividend cut could become more likely if the company experiences steeper revenue declines, pursues faster deleveraging, or makes more aggressive investments. JPMorgan described a potential dividend cut as a "key negative catalyst" for the stock.