Strategy's Bitcoin Policy Shift Creates 'Near-Term Noise,' Standard Chartered Says

Uncertainty over a potential shift in the Bitcoin strategy of its largest corporate holder, Strategy, is creating "near-term noise" for the cryptocurrency's price, according to a note from Standard Chartered. The bank maintains, however, that clearer communication from the company could remove this market overhang and reaffirmed its bullish long-term price forecast.

A Change in Approach

In a note to investors on Friday, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick said that Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, "appears to be pivoting from its 'never sell Bitcoin' mantra to a more complex approach." Strategy is a critical player in the market, holding 843,775 coins, which represents more than 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.

Any significant change in the company's policy for managing these assets is closely watched by investors for its potential impact on supply and market sentiment.

New Model Driven by Valuation

The catalyst for this strategic shift is reportedly the company's mNAV metric, which divides its enterprise value by its Bitcoin holdings. According to the note, this metric has fallen to approximately 1.0 from much higher levels seen between 2020 and mid-2025, making its original model of issuing shares to fund Bitcoin purchases less effective.

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Standard Chartered said Strategy is now moving toward using its Bitcoin holdings as backing for its preferred stock (ticker: STRC), which functions as a credit product. Kendrick noted that the STRC, with approximately $10 billion in notional value outstanding, is "heavily over-collateralised and should therefore trade back to $100" from its current level around $90.

Market Outlook and Price Forecast

Standard Chartered believes the key to calming market jitters lies in Strategy's corporate communications. Effective messaging that reassures investors "that wholesale selling is unlikely" could remove the need for the company to actually sell any of its Bitcoin holdings, Kendrick stated.

Despite the short-term uncertainty, the bank views recent Bitcoin price weakness as "mostly noise rather than a signal of BTC's medium-term direction." Consequently, Standard Chartered is maintaining its end-of-2026 price forecast for Bitcoin at $100,000.