Strategy's Bitcoin Policy Shift Creates 'Near-Term Noise' for Crypto, Standard Chartered Says

Uncertainty surrounding a shift in Strategy's approach to its massive Bitcoin holdings is creating "near-term noise" for the cryptocurrency, but the overhang should be temporary, according to a note from Standard Chartered on Friday.

Strategy's Evolving Approach

Analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote that Strategy (MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, appears to be pivoting from its long-held "'never sell Bitcoin' mantra to a more complex approach." Strategy is the largest corporate holder of the digital asset, with holdings of 843,775 coins, representing over 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be created.

The bank attributes this strategic shift to a decline in Strategy's mNAV metric, which divides its enterprise value by its Bitcoin holdings. This metric has fallen to approximately 1.0, making the company's previous model of issuing shares to acquire more Bitcoin less effective, according to the note.

A New Focus on Preferred Stock

Standard Chartered suggests Strategy is now pivoting to use its Bitcoin reserves as backing for its preferred stock (STRC), which the bank views as a credit product. Kendrick noted that STRC, with around $10 billion in notional value outstanding, is "heavily over-collateralised."

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As a result, the analyst believes the preferred stock "should therefore trade back to $100" from its current level of around $90.

Market Outlook and Price Target

Effective communication from Strategy's management about its new approach is "key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely," Kendrick stated. The analyst argued that if this signaling is effective, it could remove the need for the company to sell any of its Bitcoin holdings.

Despite the short-term uncertainty, Standard Chartered characterized recent Bitcoin price weakness as "mostly noise rather than a signal of BTC's medium-term direction." The bank maintained its end-of-2026 Bitcoin price forecast of $100,000.