Story
Strategy's Bitcoin Policy Shift Creates Market Uncertainty, Standard Chartered Says
Summary
According to a Standard Chartered analyst, a pivot in the Bitcoin strategy of major corporate holder Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is causing short-term market noise, though the bank maintains its long-term price forecast.
Uncertainty surrounding an evolving approach to Bitcoin holdings by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is creating near-term headwinds for the cryptocurrency, according to a note to investors from Standard Chartered. The bank's analyst, Geoff Kendrick, stated that clearer communication from the company should resolve the issue, maintaining a $100,000 price forecast for Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
A Strategic Pivot
Standard Chartered noted that Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, appears to be moving away from its long-held "never sell Bitcoin" mantra toward a more complex strategy. The firm holds 843,775 coins, which represents more than 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be in circulation.
The catalyst for this shift, according to the note, is the company's mNAV metric, which divides its enterprise value by its Bitcoin holdings. This ratio has fallen to approximately 1.0 from much higher levels seen between 2020 and mid-2025, making its previous model of issuing shares to acquire more Bitcoin less effective.
New Role for Bitcoin Holdings
Strategy's new approach involves using its significant Bitcoin reserves as backing for its preferred stock (STRC), which functions as a credit product. Kendrick highlighted that the STRC, with about $10 billion in notional value outstanding, is "heavily over-collateralised."
AdDue to this strong backing, the analyst expects STRC's price to recover to $100 from its current level of around $90. The key to stabilizing the market, Kendrick argued, is for Strategy to effectively communicate its new policy.
Market Impact and Outlook
Standard Chartered believes that clear signaling from Strategy is crucial to reassure investors that "wholesale selling is unlikely." If the company's messaging is successful, it could remove the price overhang on Bitcoin without requiring Strategy to sell any of its holdings.
Despite the current market noise, the bank views the recent price weakness in Bitcoin as a temporary distraction rather than a change in its fundamental direction. Consequently, Standard Chartered reiterated its year-end 2026 price target of $100,000 for the digital asset.