SpaceX to Report First Public Earnings Amid Scrutiny of AI Spending and Starlink Growth

SpaceX is set to release its first quarterly results as a public company after Tuesday's market close, with investors and analysts keenly focused on the firm's heavy spending on artificial intelligence and the financial performance of its Starlink satellite internet division. According to a FactSet consensus, Wall Street anticipates Q2 revenue of $6.88 billion on a loss of $0.23 per share, though the company has not provided its own formal guidance.

Starlink's Profitability in Focus

The Starlink connectivity segment remains the primary driver of SpaceX's current profitability and is expected to be a highlight of the report. Analyst models from LSEG and Visible Alpha project significant growth in this unit.

• Q2 Connectivity Revenue: Forecast at $3.82 billion.
• Q2 Operating Profit: Expected to reach $1.42 billion, up from $1.19 billion in Q1.
• Revenue Growth: Projected to accelerate to 52.6% in the second quarter, a sharp increase from 31.6% in the first.

This growth is largely attributed to international expansion. However, a key point of scrutiny will be the company's average revenue per user (ARPU), which fell nearly 25% year-over-year in Q1, suggesting that subscriber growth may be coming at the cost of pricing power. SpaceX reported 10.3 million subscribers at the end of Q1, a figure that excludes enterprise and government clients.

The Multi-Billion Dollar AI Question

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Investor concern is centered on the company's aggressive capital expenditure (capex), particularly in its nascent AI division. Total Q2 capex is forecast at $14.05 billion, with the AI segment alone accounting for $10.2 billion—more than six times the level from a year ago, per LSEG and Visible Alpha data.

By contrast, AI segment revenue is only expected to reach $2.33 billion in Q2, creating a substantial funding gap. The long-term spending outlook is even more demanding, with consensus data from S&P Global and Visible Alpha projecting total capex could surge to $118.4 billion by fiscal 2028, pushing debt to $218 billion.

Rockets, Risks, and Lockup Expiries

SpaceX's core Space segment, which includes its Falcon launch services and the next-generation Starship program, is expected to remain loss-making through at least fiscal 2026. While it provides a significant competitive advantage, it means Starlink's cash flow must fund two capital-intensive buildouts simultaneously.

A significant near-term risk for the stock is the upcoming expiration of IPO lockup periods. Starting August 6, up to 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale. The primary 180-day lockup expires around December 8, 2026, which could expand the public float from its current 4-5% to approximately 40% of shares outstanding, potentially creating significant selling pressure on the stock.