Middle East Oil Exports Remain One-Third Below Pre-War Levels Despite Covert Shipments

Despite a large-scale clandestine operation involving tankers sailing without tracking signals, approximately one-third of the Middle East's pre-war oil export volume remains off the global market, according to industry data. This persistent supply shortfall is contributing to a significant risk premium in energy prices, pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since July.

Gauging the Supply Shortfall

Recent assessments from financial and analytics firms show a consensus forming around a significant supply gap, even after accounting for covert shipments. This contrasts with more optimistic initial government statements.

• Goldman Sachs: In a September 2 note, analysts estimated total Gulf oil exports, including the so-called "dark crossings," were roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels per day (bpd), about two-thirds of pre-war levels.
• Vortexa: The London-based analytics company estimated total oil exports from the Gulf region reached 15 million bpd in August, which is still down by 10 million bpd from levels seen before the conflict began on February 28.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently clarified that a figure of 18 million bpd cited last week was for a single 24-hour peak. He stated the running average for all "waterborne routes" was 9 million bpd, a figure much closer to the industry consensus.

The 'Dark Fleet' Operation

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The covert shipments are a response to Iranian attacks on shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Tankers carrying crude from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have been turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders in an operation described as the world's largest clandestine tanker effort, reportedly organized with U.S. military support.

The scale of these covert flows is substantial. Reuters calculations suggest that dark shipments amounted to at least 500 million barrels from June to August, worth at least $40 billion based on an average price of $80 per barrel.

Market Impact

The discrepancy between peak daily flows and sustained export levels, combined with the overall uncertainty, has added a persistent risk premium to crude prices. The supply tightness has directly impacted markets, with Brent crude futures climbing above the $100 mark and U.S. diesel prices hitting an all-time high last week.

Data from Kpler and other industry sources show that while Gulf crude exports can reach as high as 14 million bpd on some days, volumes fluctuate significantly depending on the intensity of regional conflict. This volatility continues to underpin elevated prices and market nervousness.