Medicare Advantage Premiums to Fall Over 16% in 2027, CMS Projects

The weighted average monthly premium for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans is projected to decrease by more than 16% in 2027, according to new data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). The agency estimates the average premium will fall to $12 next year from $14.37 in 2026.

Key 2027 Projections

In a release on Monday, CMS provided its first look at the 2027 landscape ahead of the Medicare Open Enrollment period, which runs from October 15 to December 7, 2026. The data reflects insurers' planned premiums, benefits, and service areas for the upcoming year.

Key estimates from the agency include:

• Enrollment: Projected to reach 34 million beneficiaries in 2027, or 47.4% of the total Medicare population, though CMS noted it expects final enrollment to be higher.
• Prescription Drug Premiums: Average premiums for prescription drug coverage within MA plans are expected to fall by 38%. In contrast, premiums for standalone Part D prescription drug plans are projected to rise by less than $1 per month.
• Plan Access: More than 99% of Medicare beneficiaries will have access to at least one MA plan, and 97% will have access to 10 or more options.

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Insurer Strategy and Market Impact

The premium decrease comes as major health insurers are recalibrating their strategies, exiting less profitable markets to focus on margin recovery amid rising costs. "The 2027 picture remains largely flattish, as most plans are looking to recover margins, with growth less of a focus," said Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn.

According to Wall Street analysts, Humana has reduced its plan footprint more significantly than its peers. Barclays estimated the company is making 3,995 gross plan exits, which could affect 942,000 members. Other major providers, including UnitedHealth and CVS Health, have also reduced their plan offerings, while Elevance’s footprint has remained largely stable, analysts noted.