Gulf States Test China's Influence to Restrain Iran Amid Regional Conflict

Gulf Arab states are turning to China to pressure Iran into de-escalating a conflict that has restricted vital energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. This diplomatic push reflects growing frustration in the region and tests the extent of Beijing's willingness and ability to influence Tehran, according to multiple regional sources.

A Shift Away From Washington

The current conflict, which the source material describes as beginning with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, has prompted Gulf nations to seek Beijing's intervention. With Iran and its allies threatening key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb waterway, Gulf leaders perceive the limits of American power in the region, three sources told Reuters.

China, a major buyer of oil from both Iran and the Gulf states, has significant economic leverage. In response to the crisis, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held numerous calls with counterparts, and special envoy Zhai Jun has met with officials in Gulf capitals and Tehran. China's foreign ministry stated it has "maintained close communication with all parties" and has "consistently worked to stop the fighting and promote peace."

Beijing's Cautious Diplomacy

Despite its economic clout, China is navigating the crisis cautiously, aiming to preserve its relationships across the region. "There’s huge respect between the Gulf and China and they are a big trading partner, so any issue is raised in a very quiet manner," one Gulf source said. This approach was central to China's 2023 success in brokering a diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

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However, Beijing has refrained from publicly challenging Tehran's threats to shipping, fueling doubts about its commitment. According to a second Gulf source, "China has turned out not to be as influential as we thought — whether that is a lack of will or a lack of capacity is debatable." Analysts note that China's calculations are heavily constrained by its overarching geopolitical rivalry with the United States.

The Limits of Economic Leverage

Experts argue that China's influence is primarily transactional and stops short of binding security commitments. Henry Tugendhat, a China specialist at the Washington Institute, told Reuters that Beijing's main priority is preserving its regional relationships rather than siding with one camp.

This strategy has yielded narrow successes, such as direct talks with Yemen’s Houthi movement that have reportedly enabled Chinese tankers to sail safely through the Red Sea. However, these bilateral arrangements do not address the broader conflict. "Gulf governments can buy Chinese technology, investment and drones, but what they cannot buy is Chinese leverage that operates independently of (its relations with) Washington," said a source with direct knowledge of the discussions.

Unlike the U.S., which has mutual defense obligations in the region, China's foreign policy is built on trade and investment. Beijing has stated it is not prepared to use military force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, instead consistently calling for dialogue to ensure the free flow of international shipping.