Goldman Sachs: Gulf Oil Exports Rebound to 2025 Levels Despite Disruptions

Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to their 2025 average levels, reaching 23.3 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past week, according to new estimates from Goldman Sachs. The recovery was fueled by a doubling of exports in September, primarily through increased shipments via the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude Leads the Recovery

The rebound was almost entirely driven by crude oil, which accounted for nearly 90% of the September increase. Crude exports reached 19 million bpd in the past week, or 108% of their 2025 average, the bank stated. This recovery occurred despite an attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline that temporarily disrupted flows.

In contrast, exports of key refined products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remain at just 50% of their 2025 average. Goldman Sachs attributes this lag to two main factors:

• Refinery outages in the Middle East are currently 2.0 million bpd above seasonal norms.
• Refined products are more flammable than crude oil, posing greater physical risks for tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional Export Dynamics

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Saudi Arabia's exports more than doubled in September, surpassing their 2025 average to hit 11.6 million bpd in the last week. The kingdom achieved this by redirecting exports from the Red Sea, which is affected by an ongoing Houthi blockade, to its eastern ports. Exports from the UAE also stood above their 2025 average.

Meanwhile, satellite data indicated no seaborne exports of crude or major refined products from Iran during September, according to the report.

Market Outlook

Goldman Sachs assesses the global oil market as "roughly balanced" in September, noting that visible global inventories have remained broadly flat. The bank's analysis shows that commercial oil stocks in OECD countries are in line with levels from late February 2026.

Based on these supply dynamics, the firm maintains its base case for Brent crude prices to moderate to $85 per barrel by the end of the year and to $80 per barrel in 2027.