BofA Lifts 2030 Semiconductor Market Forecast to $3.2 Trillion on Data Center and Memory Demand

Bank of America Securities has increased its 2030 forecast for the global semiconductor market to $3.2 trillion, a significant upgrade from its previous estimate of $2.7 trillion. The new projection implies an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the industry from 2026 through 2030, up from a prior forecast of 14% CAGR.

Upgraded Outlook Drivers

According to a note from the bank, the revised forecast is primarily driven by expectations for stronger growth in the memory and data center markets. BofA also anticipates a more pronounced recovery in the automotive and industrial sectors, contributing to the bullish long-term outlook.

While BofA said it made no changes to its individual company estimates, it described the higher industry-wide forecast as a positive signal for its European coverage. The bank specifically highlighted semiconductor capital equipment makers and its preferred chip stocks as key beneficiaries.

European Stocks in Focus

BofA named Infineon (IFXGn) and STMicroelectronics (STMPA) as its top picks among European semiconductor companies. The bank also identified several semiconductor capital equipment (semicap) manufacturers positioned to gain from the expanded market growth:

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• ASML (ASML)
• ASM International (ASMI)
• VAT Group (VACN)
• Comet Holding (COTNE)

Sector-Specific Growth

The bank projects that spending on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment will grow at a 28% CAGR between 2026 and 2030, outpacing the 25% growth forecast for non-EUV equipment. This trend underpins BofA's sales estimates for EUV leader ASML, which it notes are 2 to 3 percentage points above consensus.

In the automotive sector, BofA forecasts the semiconductor market will reach $60 billion in 2026, a 12% year-over-year increase. Analysts expect this growth to be fueled by rising semiconductor content per vehicle, even amid otherwise weak vehicle production figures.