Berenberg Initiates Space Sector Coverage With Four 'Buy' Ratings

Investment bank Berenberg has begun formal coverage of the U.S. and European space sector, initiating ratings on five companies and highlighting a bullish outlook for an industry it projects will double in size by the end of the decade.

A Trillion-Dollar Outlook

Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov said in a note that falling launch costs have propelled the space economy past $500 billion in 2025, with a trajectory to exceed $1 trillion by 2030. The firm's analysis favors companies with "vertically integrated launch and differentiated/sovereign constellation capability that cannot easily be replicated."

The analyst identified defense and sovereignty-related spending as the most de-risked driver of demand. The note cited global defense space spending reaching $74 billion in 2025 and a U.S. Space Force fiscal 2027 budget request that more than doubled from the prior year.

Initiations and Price Targets

Berenberg launched coverage with four 'Buy' ratings and one 'Hold' rating, joining an existing 'Buy' rating on OHB SE. The new initiations are:

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• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Buy, with an $83 price target.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Buy, with a $92 price target.
• Planet Labs (PL): Buy, with a $25 price target.
• HawkEye 360: Buy, with a $24 price target.
• Avio SpA (AVI): Hold, with a €33 price target.

Analyst Rationale

Filatov called Rocket Lab "the only end-to-end public pure-play in space," citing its leadership in dedicated small launches and the near-term revenue upside from its Space Systems segment. AST SpaceMobile earned the highest price target, with the analyst noting it is "the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones."

Planet Labs was highlighted for being "the only company imaging the entire Earth daily," while HawkEye 360 offers "unique exposure" to radio-frequency signals intelligence for defense clients. The lone 'Hold' rating for Italian firm Avio reflects near-term earnings constraints from capital spending on a new plant in Virginia, with a payoff not expected until 2029 or later, according to the note.