Gulf Shipping Traffic Holds at Fraction of Pre-War Levels Amid Diplomatic Uncertainty

Shipping traffic through the vital Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remained stable on Tuesday, though at levels far below historical norms, according to ship-tracking data. The muted activity comes amid conflicting signals regarding diplomatic efforts to end the regional conflict that began on February 28.

Hormuz Traffic Severely Depressed

Data from analytics firm Kpler showed just eight vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, a figure consistent with the previous day but a fraction of the 130 to 140 ships that typically passed through daily before the conflict. The day's traffic included five tankers and three bulk carriers.

In a notable development, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker controlled by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) reappeared outside the strait after a successful transit. According to LSEG and Kpler data, the tanker *Mubaraz* loaded its cargo at Das Island, UAE, on July 14 and is now off India's western coast, with a scheduled arrival at the Dahej terminal on August 5. This marks the vessel's third successful cargo run since the conflict began.

Bab el-Mandeb Crossings Also Low

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Further south, the Bab el-Mandeb strait saw 20 vessels cross on Tuesday, unchanged from the day prior, Kpler data indicated. The traffic, which included tankers, bulk carriers, and a gas carrier, was evenly split between vessels entering and exiting the waterway.

It is important to note that these counts may not capture all traffic, as some vessels may be navigating the region with their tracking transponders turned off.

Market Impact and Diplomatic Outlook

The subdued shipping activity reflects ongoing geopolitical risk. Oil prices eased on Tuesday following a statement from Qatar that mediators were making progress in efforts to end the war. However, Tehran has denied that direct talks are underway, creating uncertainty for energy and shipping markets that are closely monitoring the situation for any signs of de-escalation.