Freeport-McMoRan Stock Surges as Copper Hits All-Time High Above $14,600/Ton

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) surged on Tuesday after the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hit a new all-time high. The move highlights investor optimism surrounding the mining giant's profitability as tightening global supply continues to drive the industrial metal's price to unprecedented levels.

Record Prices and Market Reaction

LME three-month copper touched an intraday record of $14,694 per ton on Tuesday, surpassing the previous high of $14,527.50 set in January 2026. In response, Freeport-McMoRan shares climbed 7.2% to $77.99 in morning trade, according to Investing.com data. The stock is now up approximately 44% year-to-date.

The price increase has a direct and significant impact on the company's bottom line. According to Freeport-McMoRan's own management sensitivity model, every 10-cent rise in the price of copper translates to an estimated $390 million in annual EBITDA. Tuesday's copper price, trading above $6.60 per pound, implies an earnings profile well above the company's projected $13 billion EBITDA floor for 2027-2028, which assumes a $5 per pound price.

Supply Constraints Fuel Rally

The rally is underpinned by significant supply-side pressures. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, reported its weakest second-quarter output in nearly two decades and has lowered its full-year production forecast for the second consecutive quarter, now projecting a 2.6% annual decline, as reported by the Economic Times. This has led investment bank Morgan Stanley to revise its outlook, now projecting that global mine supply will remain flat or decline slightly in 2026, which would be the first annual drop since 2017.

Ad

Adding to the tightness, US-bound copper shipments have reportedly increased ahead of potential tariff actions, drawing down inventories from global warehouses. "Supply will come, but the question is how quickly," Anglo American Chief Operating Officer Ruben Fernandes said, as quoted by the Economic Times, summarizing the market's core challenge.

Outlook and Near-Term Catalysts

Analysts are increasingly bullish on copper's trajectory. Citigroup analyst Tom Mulqueen forecasts prices could reach $15,000 per ton by the end of the year, with a potential upside scenario of $17,000 if demand from manufacturing, data centers, or the energy transition exceeds current expectations.

Investors are now watching two key macroeconomic events that could influence the rally's next move. The European Central Bank is expected to deliver a rate decision on Thursday, September 10, which will shape global risk appetite. More critical for the dollar-denominated commodity will be the U.S. inflation report due Friday, September 11. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the U.S. dollar and pressure copper prices, while a benign report could clear the way for further gains.