Euronext Wheat Stalls as Easing Black Sea Tensions Offset French Crop Downgrade

European wheat futures held steady on Monday, as easing concerns over Black Sea grain shipments offset a bearish production forecast for France, the European Union's top grower. The market paused after a volatile week, balancing geopolitical relief against mounting supply worries.

Market Reaction

Benchmark September milling wheat on the Paris-based Euronext exchange finished the daytime session unchanged at €234.75 ($267.97) per metric ton. This stability follows a significant 8.4% price surge last week, which was driven by escalating conflict in the Black Sea region.

The flat close suggests that traders are reassessing the supply and demand landscape after the recent rally, with the immediate threat of further disruption appearing to subside for now.

Geopolitical Factors

Last week's price gains were a direct response to repeated strikes by both Russia and Ukraine on each other's grain shipping infrastructure and port terminals. These attacks, a notable shift in the conflict, had raised fears of a significant disruption to crucial Black Sea wheat exports.

According to the source, Monday's market sentiment reflected relief that these attacks were not escalating further, which calmed immediate fears of a major interruption to global grain flows from the region.

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French Production Concerns

Countering the geopolitical calm, a new forecast from Argus Media on Monday projected a notable decline in French wheat production. The report cited damaging dry and hot weather as the primary cause for the expected shortfall in the EU's largest cereal producer.

Key figures from the forecast include:

• France's 2026 soft wheat crop is now expected to fall to 30.80 million metric tons.
• This figure represents a 7.6% decrease from the 2025 harvest.

Despite this bearish supply news, the easing tensions in the Black Sea were sufficient to keep prices from rising further during the session.