Copper Price Could Hit $22,050 by 2027 on US-China Stockpiling, Deutsche Bank Says

Copper prices could climb nearly 50% from current levels to $10 per pound ($22,050 per metric tonne) by the second quarter of 2027, according to a new forecast from Deutsche Bank. The projection is primarily driven by accelerating stockpiling of the industrial metal by the United States and China.

The Stockpiling Thesis

Deutsche Bank estimates that by the end of this year, the United States and China could collectively hold 71% of the world's total copper supply. This accumulation is fueled by two distinct trends.

China has been building its strategic copper reserves for decades. Meanwhile, the U.S. has more recently begun to amass significant quantities in its warehouses, a move analysts attribute to the threat of potential import tariffs that is encouraging a large-scale inflow of the metal.

A Potential Global Squeeze

If this stockpiling trend continues unabated, the rest of the world could face a copper shortage by the end of 2028, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Ghali, as cited in the report. However, the bank does not expect this extreme scenario to materialize.

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Instead, a sustained rise in copper prices would likely trigger material substitution. The report notes that some industrial users would eventually switch to aluminum, which is a less efficient electrical conductor but is significantly cheaper. Deutsche Bank stated that current copper prices are not yet high enough to induce this kind of large-scale substitution.

US Market Dynamics

The report also suggests that market mechanics could keep copper within U.S. borders, even if the threatened tariffs are not implemented. Currently, U.S. copper futures are trading at a premium to prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Because the LME operates warehouses in the U.S., a narrowing of this price premium would likely result in copper moving between different domestic storage facilities rather than being exported. This dynamic would further tighten the supply available to the global market.