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Citi Lowers RV Sector Estimates Amid Persistent Demand Weakness
Citi has lowered its financial estimates for several major recreational vehicle companies, signaling continued headwinds for the sector amid persistently weak consumer demand, according to a research note released Wednesday.
Revised Financial Outlook
The firm made notable downward revisions to its forecasts for Camping World Holdings (CWH), citing a challenging outlook through 2026. Citi also adjusted its earnings estimates for industry giants Thor Industries (THO) and Winnebago Industries (WGO).
Key estimate changes for Camping World include:
- Fiscal 2026 EBITDA: Reduced by $8 million to $230 million, which is at the low end of the company's own guidance.
- Fiscal 2027 EBITDA: Cut by $25 million to $301 million.
- Fiscal 2028 EBITDA: Lowered by $32 million to $383 million.
For Thor and Winnebago, Citi adjusted its fourth-quarter 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by -$0.01 and +$0.03, respectively. Looking further out, the firm now projects fiscal 2027 EBITDA for both companies to be roughly flat year-over-year, as inflationary pressures are expected to offset any margin improvement initiatives.
AdIndustry-Wide Sales Slump
The revisions are based on recent industry data that points to a sustained downturn. According to the note, retail unit sales for the RV industry remained weak, falling approximately 20% in July. Wholesale shipments declined 12% during the same month.
For the May-to-July period, which constituted Thor Industries' fiscal fourth quarter, industry-wide retail sales were down 15%. Thor's own retail sales fell more sharply, declining 21%. The company's wholesale shipments decreased 15% in the quarter.
What to Watch
Investors will be closely monitoring several upcoming industry events for further signs of market health. The Hershey RV Show, a major retail event, runs from September 16 to September 20. Thor Industries is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2026 earnings on September 22, which will be followed by the RV Dealer Open House in Elkhart, Indiana.
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