China Poses Biggest Long-Term Threat to SpaceX Dominance, Morgan Stanley Says

China's rapidly advancing space program is emerging as the biggest long-term competitive threat to SpaceX, according to a new note from Morgan Stanley. The assessment follows a major technological milestone in which China successfully recovered an orbital-class rocket booster for the first time.

A Milestone in Reusable Rockets

Analysts at the Wall Street firm highlighted the successful recovery of the Long March 10B booster by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC) as a pivotal development. This achievement makes CASC only the third entity in the world, after SpaceX and Blue Origin, to recover an orbital-class booster.

Morgan Stanley described the event as a "major step toward routine rocket reuse." However, the brokerage cautioned that Beijing must still demonstrate the ability to conduct repeated launches and reflights before it possesses a fully operational reusable launch system.

The Competitive Landscape

According to Morgan Stanley, China's comprehensive space ecosystem, which includes both state-backed initiatives and private companies like LandSpace and Space Pioneer, constitutes the most significant challenge to SpaceX's launch business. The country is already the world's second-largest launch market by activity.

• China conducted 90 orbital launches in 2025.
• In comparison, SpaceX conducted 165 Falcon 9 launches in the same year.

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U.S. Space Force officials had previously estimated that China was three to five years away from mastering rocket reusability. Morgan Stanley suggested the successful Long March 10B demonstration could significantly "shorten that timeline."

China's Broader Space Ambitions

Beyond launch capabilities, Morgan Stanley pointed to China's large-scale plans for satellite constellations as a key area of competition. These projects include:

• The planned Guowang and Qianfan low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, targeting a combined total of approximately 28,000 satellites.
• A proposed filing for more than 190,000 non-geostationary satellites.
• The development of the "Star Compute" orbital supercomputer network, a planned 2,800-satellite system.

Despite the growing competition, Morgan Stanley maintained its "overweight" rating on SpaceX with a $300 price target. The firm acknowledged that SpaceX remains the global leader in launch cadence and reusable technology but warned investors not to "underestimate China's progress in narrowing the gap."