Boeing Projects Global Air Cargo Traffic to Double by 2045

Boeing (NYSE: BA) projects that global air cargo traffic will double over the next 20 years, driven by the growth of e-commerce and demand for high-value goods. The forecast, released Wednesday, anticipates the world's dedicated freighter fleet will need to expand by nearly 70% to meet this rising demand.

Forecast Highlights

In its biannual World Air Cargo Forecast, presented at The International Air Cargo Association's forum in Miami, Boeing outlined its long-term outlook for the sector. The company expects air cargo traffic to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5% through 2045, outpacing projections for long-term global trade growth.

This follows a new annual record for global air cargo traffic set in 2025, which saw a nearly 5% year-over-year increase from 2024, according to the report. Dedicated freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of all global air cargo traffic over the long term.

Fleet Expansion and Demand

To support the projected traffic growth and replace retiring aircraft, Boeing forecasts a need for 2,930 new and converted freighters over the next two decades. This will expand the worldwide freighter fleet from 2,395 airplanes in 2025 to 4,010 by 2045.

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Key details of the fleet demand include:

• Approximately 55% of deliveries will be to add capacity, while 45% will replace older freighters.
• Converted passenger airplanes are expected to make up about two-thirds of deliveries, with the remainder being new-production freighters.

Market Drivers and Regional Trends

The forecast identifies e-commerce, direct-to-consumer business models, and the transport of high-tech goods as primary drivers of air cargo's expansion. Citing IATA data, Boeing noted that more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025.

"Air cargo's adaptability and speed are strategic advantages enabling reliable transport, dynamic rerouting and critical support for evolving supply chains," said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. Trade flows involving Asia are set to lead this growth, representing approximately 60% of the global market. The South Asia-East Asia market is forecast to be the fastest-growing international route, with traffic projected to increase 3.2 times by 2045.