Bernstein Sets $300K Bitcoin Target for 2029, Citing Currency Debasement Risk

Bernstein analysts have set a long-term price target of $300,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2029, arguing the cryptocurrency is positioned to benefit from what they call the "debasement trade." The forecast is rooted in the view that a new macroeconomic era of rising interest rates will pressure governments to devalue their currencies to manage high sovereign debt.

The Forecast

In a note to clients, analyst Gautam Chhugani outlined a multi-year projection for the leading digital asset, based on its historical four-year cycle and the firm's "price-to-marginal cost framework."

• Mid-2027 Target: The firm expects the market to recover to a new all-time high of $150,000.
• 2029 Peak: The next market cycle peak is forecast to reach $300,000 by the end of 2029.

Macroeconomic Rationale

Bernstein's thesis hinges on the end of a 40-year period of declining interest rates. With governments now facing unprecedented debt levels, rising yields create what the firm calls a "self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expense, wider deficits and greater borrowing needs."

"Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, we believe the policymakers will ultimately favor the latter, as it is politically less disruptive," the firm stated. This environment, Bernstein argues, will drive investors toward scarce assets that cannot be easily diluted by central bank policies.

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Bitcoin as a Hard Asset

Bernstein identifies Bitcoin as the leading hard asset to benefit from this potential trend. The note highlights the cryptocurrency's unique capital base, pointing out that approximately 60% of its supply is held by price-insensitive investors who have held through drawdowns exceeding 50%.

This resilient holder base, combined with expanding institutional and retail access points, strengthens Bitcoin's position as a potential hedge against currency devaluation, according to the analysis.

MicroStrategy Target Adjusted

In the same report, Bernstein also updated its view on MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. The firm lowered its price target on the company's stock to $350 from a previous $450.

Despite the target reduction, Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on MSTR. The company's significant holdings, which represent about 4% of the world's Bitcoin supply, make its stock a closely watched proxy for institutional exposure to the cryptocurrency.