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Analysts Find Current Bitcoin Bear Market 'Comforting' and Milder Than Past Cycles
Bitcoin has recently retested lows near $60,000, representing a fall of approximately 54% from its cycle peak of about $125,000 in November 2025. In a note to clients, analysts at Bernstein described this ongoing bear market as "rather comforting," highlighting that the drawdown has been considerably milder than the 75% to 90% corrections observed in previous cycles.
The analysts pointed to a shift in investment flows, noting that while Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen outflows of $5.5 billion this year, buying from corporate treasury holders has provided a counterbalance. They specifically mentioned the firm Strategy, which they believe is unlikely to become a forced seller due to its stable financial position, which includes 17 months of cash reserves to cover its obligations.
A notable trend has also emerged in the mining sector. According to the report, U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have become net sellers as many pivot toward AI data center operations. This has led to a decrease in the U.S. share of the global hash rate, with international miners in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America absorbing that share.
AdIn conclusion, the Bernstein analysts suggested that although "any crypto correction is painful," the current market behavior indicates that "crypto feels like it’s growing up." While the firm remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, it acknowledged that its year-end price target of $150,000 now "appears ambitious" given the current market correction.