U.S. Stock Futures Mixed as Investors Await CPI Data, Big Bank Earnings

U.S. stock index futures were mixed in early trading on Tuesday as investors braced for a key inflation report and the beginning of the second-quarter earnings season, while monitoring geopolitical tensions that have pushed oil prices to a four-week high.

Inflation and Bank Earnings Take Center Stage

The June consumer price index (CPI) data, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is a primary focus for the market. While the report is expected to show that inflation eased last month, any relief could be short-lived as rising energy costs threaten to reignite price pressures.

Investors are also looking to the start of the Q2 earnings season for signals on the health of corporate America. Major financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are set to report their results Tuesday. The earnings season is seen as a crucial test for the stock market's recent rally, which has pushed the benchmark S&P 500 up approximately 10% this year.

Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Policy in Focus

Adding to market uncertainty are escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. According to a Reuters report, a third consecutive night of U.S. military strikes and the potential for new fees on cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to a surge in oil futures.

"Gasoline prices are already back above June levels, meaning the next inflation report will heat up again. So today’s CPI figures may matter less than the re-escalating geopolitical tensions," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note.

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This backdrop complicates the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday suggested the central bank may need to raise interest rates "in the near term." According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a 43% chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed’s July 29 meeting, up from 34% a day earlier.

Early Market Moves

As of 5:13 a.m. ET, futures contracts showed a divergent market, according to Reuters data:

• Dow E-minis were down 118 points, or 0.22%.
• S&P 500 E-minis were down 1 point, or 0.01%.
• Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 142.75 points, or 0.48%.

The Nasdaq's relative strength came after the tech-heavy index fell 1.6% in the previous session. Semiconductor stocks showed signs of stabilizing in premarket trading, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF rising 2.4% after recent losses.