US Automakers to Cede Market Share to Asian Rivals Amid High Gas Prices, Cox Automotive Reports

U.S. automakers are expected to report weaker third-quarter sales and lose ground to Asian competitors as high gasoline prices push American consumers toward more fuel-efficient and hybrid vehicles. A new forecast from industry research firm Cox Automotive projects the combined market share for General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis will fall to approximately 36% in the third quarter.

Fuel Costs Reshape Demand

The primary driver of this market shift is the sharp increase in fuel costs. According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of gasoline reached $4.43 in September, a significant jump from $3.20 a year prior. Cox Automotive notes this has elevated hybrid vehicles to the top of consumer shopping lists, benefiting automakers with robust hybrid offerings.

As a result, Asian brands are poised to capture more than half of all new vehicle sales in the quarter. Toyota is expected to be a primary beneficiary of this trend, with its strong hybrid lineup projected to help lift its overall Q3 sales by 2.2% year-over-year, according to the report.

Automaker Performance Breakdown

The forecast details a diverging sales picture for major automakers, with a notable leadership change anticipated. For the first time, Hyundai Motor Group is positioned to outsell Ford in the U.S. for the quarter.

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• General Motors (GM): Expected to remain the top U.S. seller, but its quarterly sales are forecast to drop 5.2% from a year ago.
• Hyundai Motor Group: Projected sales of 511,421 units.
• Ford Motor: Projected sales of 504,172 units, falling behind Hyundai.
• Stellantis: Quarterly sales are estimated to decline by about 1% to 317,330 units.

Broader Market Context

Overall, the U.S. auto market shows signs of a slight contraction. Cox Automotive estimates total new vehicle sales for the third quarter will be approximately 4.1 million units, down roughly 1% from the same period last year.

Despite the modest dip in volume, vehicle prices continue to climb. The average transaction price for a new vehicle rose 1.9% year-over-year to $50,089 in August, according to Cox data, indicating persistent pricing power in the market even as consumer preferences evolve.