Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over, Injecting Fresh Volatility into Oil Markets

President Donald Trump announced Friday that a ceasefire with Iran reached last month is "OVER," even as he confirmed that the United States has agreed to continue diplomatic talks. The declaration, made in a social media post, introduces a new layer of uncertainty into the five-month-old conflict that has already disrupted global energy flows.

Diplomatic Maneuvering

In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated, "The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks.' We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!" According to Reuters, Iran disputed this characterization, with its Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying via state television that it had not requested talks but had agreed to host a Qatari mediator in Tehran.

Senior U.S. officials said Washington is demanding that Iran publicly commit to stopping attacks on shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz. The demand follows a week of escalating hostilities where three commercial tankers were attacked, prompting retaliatory U.S. strikes on Iranian sites, which were then answered by Iranian strikes on U.S. military facilities in the Gulf.

Market Impact and Energy Security

The renewed conflict has directly impacted energy markets, adding a significant geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Crude oil experienced its biggest weekly rise in eight weeks following the recent attacks.

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Concerns over supply are mounting as U.S. energy stockpiles tighten. Key market indicators include:

• U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
• Total gasoline stocks are now nearly 10 million barrels below the five-year average for this time of year.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global trade, handled approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the conflict began. Continued instability in the region threatens significant disruptions to global energy supplies.

Background of the Conflict

The current tensions follow a week of relative calm after a series of military exchanges. The conflict, which began on February 28, has seen Washington accuse Iranian forces of attacking tankers, leading to a cycle of military responses. Iran's Health Ministry reported that U.S. strikes on Wednesday and Thursday killed at least 17 people and wounded 115 across six cities, according to Reuters.