SpaceX Stock Faces Pressure as 911.5 Million Shares Approach Lockup Expiry

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) is approaching a critical juncture as a post-IPO lockup period is set to expire, releasing 911.5 million shares for trading. The event, scheduled for the second trading day after the company's first quarterly report in August, could introduce significant selling pressure on a stock already trading near its all-time low of $113.30.

Impending Supply Overhang

The scale of the unlock represents a major risk for near-term price stability. The 911.5 million shares, valued at approximately $123 billion at the IPO price, could flood the market, overwhelming the stock's average daily trading volume of 75.25 million shares. This potential supply shock allows early investors and insiders to sell their holdings for the first time since the company went public.

According to the terms cited by Investing.com, an additional 455.8 million shares will only unlock if the stock trades above $175.50 for five out of ten consecutive days, a level significantly higher than its current price.

Stock Performance and Financials

Since its initial public offering, SpaceX's stock has been volatile. After reaching a post-IPO high of $225.64 on June 16, 2026, the shares have fallen sharply and are currently trading 14.6% below the IPO price of $135. A recent bounce, spurred by an $18 million purchase from ARK Invest, proved short-lived.

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The company's financials present a mixed picture. While SpaceX reported strong revenue of $18.67 billion for fiscal year 2025, a 33.2% increase, it also posted a net loss of $4.94 billion and is not profitable on a trailing basis. The company operates with moderate debt of $24.45 billion and does not pay a dividend, offering little defensive appeal for investors amid potential volatility.

Analyst Outlook and Market Context

Wall Street remains divided on the company's valuation. Analyst price targets range from a bullish $239 from Bernstein SocGen to a more cautious $156 from Piper Sandler. In contrast, InvestingPro's fair value model estimates the stock's worth at $111.37, slightly below its current trading price.

The upcoming lockup expiry presents a classic test of investor sentiment. While revenue is forecast to grow significantly, the market's focus remains on the company's path to profitability. The introduction of a large new supply of shares into a weak market could create a significant headwind for the stock in the coming weeks.