Northwest Europe Gasoline Margins Ease but Remain Elevated on Supply Constraints

Northwest European gasoline refining margins declined by nearly $1 on Monday to settle at $42.22 per barrel. Despite the drop, margins remain at elevated levels, buoyed by limited regional supplies and a robust trading environment.

Brisk Trading Highlights Tight Market

Trading activity was significant, underscoring the current supply-demand tension. A total of 22,000 metric tons of E5 gasoline barges were traded, with ExxonMobil and Trafigura selling to a consortium of buyers including BP, TotalEnergies, MB Energy, and Varo.

Further transactions included:

• 8,000 metric tons of E10 gasoline barges changed hands, with ExxonMobil and Shell selling to Varo and Trafigura.
• TotalEnergies was also active, purchasing three E5 barges from Trafigura and BP within the Platts window.
• A bid from Vitol for a gasoline cargo for Thames delivery found no sellers, signaling a scarcity of available product.

Supply Outlook and Projections

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Looking ahead, energy consultancy Energy Aspects anticipates that gasoline supply in the Atlantic Basin will increase by approximately 200,000 barrels per day year-over-year in the second half of 2026. This forecast is based on expectations of limited refinery maintenance in the U.S. and Europe, combined with high production levels from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery.

Despite the projected supply increase, Energy Aspects also projects that global gasoline inventories will decline through October. This trend is expected to provide price support for prompt gasoline in the United States and Singapore, though the consultancy noted that Europe’s EBOB market may require an additional catalyst to push prices higher.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors

In the United States, high gasoline prices are also drawing government attention. According to the report, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright was scheduled to meet with American companies on Monday to address methods for increasing refinery throughput. The discussions are aimed at reducing fuel prices, which have remained high following a U.S.-Israeli war on Iran mentioned in the source material's forward-looking context.