North American Steel Imports Fell in June Amid Shifting Market Dynamics, Morgan Stanley Finds

North American steel imports declined in June, falling 6% from the prior month and 9% year-over-year, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis of the latest license data. The drop occurred despite a widening price gap between domestic and foreign steel, as longer lead times and rising U.S. prices signal a tightening domestic market.

June Import Data Details

The data for June 2026 showed a total import decrease of 0.12 million tons month-over-month and 0.18 million tons from the same period last year. Year-to-date imports through June reached approximately 10.3 million tons, a 23% decrease compared to the first half of 2025, primarily driven by a 35% drop in flat product imports.

The monthly figures revealed a mixed performance across different steel categories:

• Flat products: +3%
• Pipe and tube products: +18%
• Semi-finished products: -5%
• Long products: -30%
• Stainless products: -11%

Pricing Spreads and Domestic Market

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Despite the overall decline in volume, the economic incentive to import steel grew in June. The spread between domestic and imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) averaged $127 per ton, up from $121 per ton in May and well above the 12-month average of $97 per ton. Traders generally view a spread above $100 per ton as making foreign steel economically attractive.

This comes as domestic prices have climbed significantly. According to the report, spot domestic HRC prices rose to $1,155 per short ton by June 10 from $930 in early January. Concurrently, domestic HRC lead times extended to an average of 7.6 weeks in June, up from 7.0 weeks in May and exceeding the five-year average of 5.5 weeks, indicating tighter supply conditions among U.S. mills.

Context and Rationale

Morgan Stanley attributed the lower import volumes in June to a lag effect from narrower import spreads observed in April, which peaked in late March. The bank also cited "heightened uncertainty around foreign supply and reduced availability of imported material" following the start of the Middle East conflict as contributing factors.

Overall, steel imports into North America remain below the levels seen prior to the implementation of Section 232 tariffs, a key benchmark for the industry.