Morgan Stanley Reaffirms Bullish SpaceX Stance After Starship Test Flight

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its bullish outlook on SpaceX, assigning the recent Starship Flight 13 an overall grade of "A-" and highlighting significant technological progress despite an imperfect booster landing. In a note to investors, the investment bank maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target on the company's stock, pointing to the successful execution of key mission objectives.

Flight 13 Milestones and Setbacks

According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, the test flight achieved several critical goals that advance the Starship program. The firm highlighted these successes as evidence of rapid developmental progress.

Key achievements of the mission included:

• A flawless liftoff and ascent with all 33 Raptor engines firing.
• The first-ever deployment of 20 production-version Starlink V3 satellites.
• A successful in-space relight of a Raptor engine.
• The spacecraft's softest splashdown to date, allowing for extensive heat shield data collection.

The primary issue during the mission was the hard splashdown of the Super Heavy V3 booster. The firm noted that only about five of 13 engines ignited for the final landing burn. However, analysts viewed this as a step forward from Flight 12, during which the booster failed before reaching its landing attempt.

'Tower Catch' Seen as Major Catalyst

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The investment bank argued that the most significant development came after the mission, when CEO Elon Musk indicated SpaceX may attempt the first-ever catch of the Starship upper stage with the launch tower during Flight 14. Morgan Stanley described this as a "tangible near-term catalyst" for investors.

The firm suggested that the prospect of a successful ship catch, a critical step toward full and rapid reusability, should significantly increase investor confidence in the program's long-term viability.

What's Next for Starship

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley anticipates Flight 14 could occur as early as late August or early September. A successful tower catch of the upper stage on that flight would pave the way for Flight 15 to potentially attempt catching both the Starship and the Super Heavy booster.

While the firm acknowledged that a post-earnings lock-up expiration after the August 4 results remains a potential overhang for the stock, it concluded that the overall implications from Flight 13 were positive. The program's next major milestone has now shifted to the ambitious tower catch maneuver.