Green Plains Stock Surges 10% After UBS Hikes Price Target by 67%

Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE) shares surged approximately 10% on Friday after UBS significantly increased its price target on the ethanol producer's stock. The firm cited a much-improved earnings outlook based on stronger operational performance, though it maintained a Neutral rating on the shares.

Upgraded Forecasts Drive Target Hike

In a note to clients, UBS analyst Manav Gupta raised the price target on Green Plains to $20 from a previous $12, representing a 67% increase. The revision was underpinned by a substantial upgrade to the company's earnings forecast ahead of its second-quarter results.

UBS now projects second-quarter EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) of $93 million, a sharp increase from its prior estimate of $36 million. For the full year 2026, the firm's EBITDA projection was nearly doubled to $283 million from $149 million.

Operational Strength and Strategy

The analyst note highlighted several factors for the more optimistic view. Key drivers include:

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• The full operational status of the company's Advantage Nebraska facility, which was built with expansion opportunities in mind.
• Expectations for new capacity from production running above its stated nameplate levels.
• A strategic effort to pay down debt by selling underperforming facilities.

Caution Remains Despite Optimism

Despite the significantly higher price target, UBS kept its rating on GPRE at Neutral. Gupta commented that the firm sees "limited upside in GPRE at this point of time," even with the revised target.

The analyst's note suggested that UBS sees greater potential upside in other parts of the renewables sector. "In the renewable space, we see more upside in renewable diesel (DAR) and RD feedstock providers (BG, ADM) than GPRE," Gupta wrote.