CPC Blend Crude Exports Set at 1.5 Million BPD for September Amid Black Sea Risks

Exports of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Blend crude oil are scheduled to be 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, a volume that is flat to slightly lower than the August range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million bpd, according to three traders familiar with the plan.

Maintenance and Regional Tensions

The slight reduction in planned export volume is primarily attributed to ongoing maintenance at the Karachaganak oil field. The CPC pipeline is a critical artery for global energy markets, transporting crude from Kazakhstan to a terminal near Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and accounting for approximately 2% of global oil supply.

Traders noted that actual loadings could face disruptions. Potential interruptions include adverse weather conditions and the persistent threat of drone attacks in the Black Sea region, which has seen escalating security concerns.

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Impact on Shipping

The heightened risk environment in the Black Sea has driven freight rates for oil transport to record highs. As a result, most shipowners are reportedly refusing to load oil at Russian Black Sea ports.

However, shipowners currently show a preference for loading at the CPC terminal over the nearby Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk, the traders said. This shift follows a pledge from Ukraine to halt attacks on non-Russian vessels departing from Black Sea ports.