Standard Chartered Forecasts Arbitrum's ARB Token to Reach $10 by 2030

Standard Chartered initiated research coverage of Arbitrum on Tuesday, forecasting that the Layer 2 blockchain's native ARB token could soar to $10 by the end of 2030. The bank's analysis positions Arbitrum as critical "blockchain infrastructure for traditional finance," poised to capitalize on the rapid growth of tokenized assets.

Bullish Case Tied to Asset Tokenization

In the report, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, outlined a path for ARB to first reach $0.50 by the end of 2026 before climbing to its long-term target. The bank's thesis rests on the projection that the market for tokenized assets will expand from its current size of approximately $340 billion to $4 trillion by the end of 2028.

Arbitrum, alongside Base, is identified as one of the two leading Layer 2 networks well-positioned to facilitate the migration of traditional financial institutions' operations onto the blockchain. This business model is expected to capture significant value as the tokenization trend accelerates.

Revenue Model and Key Catalysts

Arbitrum's revenue model involves collecting a 10% fee on the net protocol revenue generated by other projects that build on its technology stack. Kendrick highlighted the recently launched Robinhood Chain as a prime example of this model's potential.

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The report notes that Robinhood Chain has seen the fastest growth in total value locked (TVL) for any new blockchain. Kendrick estimates it will contribute approximately $5 million in fee revenue to Arbitrum in September, a more than fivefold increase from pre-launch levels. This early success, he added, enhances the likelihood that other traditional finance firms will also choose to build on Arbitrum, as "liquidity tends to attract more liquidity" in the blockchain space.

Valuation and Noted Risks

Standard Chartered argues that Arbitrum is currently undervalued compared to Layer 1 blockchains like Ethereum and Solana, despite having similar economic models. The bank anticipates this valuation gap will narrow over time.

However, the report also acknowledges potential risks to the forecast. These include a slower-than-expected pace of asset tokenization and significant competition from rival blockchain networks. Kendrick also pointed out that the ARB token currently lacks a direct value-accrual mechanism, but suggested that buyback programs could be introduced as the ecosystem matures.