BofA Previews Powersports Earnings, Flags Consumer Health as Key Focus

Bank of America analysts are maintaining earnings estimates near the high end of full-year outlooks for powersports manufacturers Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE:HOG) and Polaris Inc. (NYSE:PII) ahead of their upcoming quarterly reports. In a note, the bank stated that investor focus will be centered on company commentary regarding consumer health, given that both firms sell high-priced discretionary items that are often financed.

Harley-Davidson Outlook

Harley-Davidson, which is scheduled to report on Thursday, is expected to meet consensus expectations for second-quarter motorcycle shipments. BofA is forecasting shipments of 40,023 units and expects the company to reaffirm its full-year guidance of 130,000 to 135,000 units.

However, the bank's margin projections lead to slightly lower earnings estimates than the market consensus. BofA's forecasts for Harley-Davidson are:

• Q2 EBITDA: $110 million (below consensus of $117 million)
• Q2 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.60 (below consensus of $0.67)

Despite the lower quarterly profit forecast, the bank's full-year estimates remain at the high end of the company's guidance. Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on HOG stock.

Polaris Projections

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For Polaris, set to report on July 28, Bank of America anticipates results will land near the high end of the company's guidance range. The bank's Q2 EPS estimate of $0.80 is at the top of the company's $0.70 to $0.80 forecast and above the consensus estimate of $0.72.

BofA projects strong sales growth of 15% in the core Powersports division, with high-single-digit growth in its Marine and Aixam/Goupil segments. The bank maintains its 2026 EPS estimate of $1.75, which is above the company's outlook of $1.60 to $1.70. BofA reiterated its Neutral rating on PII stock.

Context: Weakening Retail Data

The focus on consumer health comes as recent industry data shows signs of potential softening. According to BofA, which cited data from Statistical Surveys, U.S. retail registration trends were stable through April before weakening in May.

Motorcycle unit registrations, after growing in the low-single digits through April, declined by 13% in May. All-terrain vehicle (ATV) registrations showed a similar pattern, falling 8% in May after modest growth earlier in the quarter. This data provides a cautious backdrop for the upcoming earnings reports.