AI Glasses Market Heats Up, Sparking Debate on Future of Personal Tech

A burgeoning market for AI-powered smart glasses is fueling an intense debate among industry leaders over the future of personal technology: will these wearable devices eventually replace the smartphone, or will they be integrated into the existing mobile ecosystem?

A Divided Industry Outlook

At the recent iRTE2026 Real-Time Intelligence Conference, experts offered starkly different visions for the next generation of personal digital interfaces. The discussion, moderated by Agora co-founder Tony Wang, highlighted three main perspectives on the role of AI glasses.

Tech media personality Pan Luan argued that the smartphone will remain the central hub, likely integrating the features of specialized hardware like AI glasses over time. "AI glasses, at least within five years, will not be able to live up to the expectations placed on them," Pan stated, noting the industry's shift from competing for screen time to optimizing for task completion with minimal user interaction.

In contrast, AIoT entrepreneur Hua Jianxin contended that the future is not about a single dominant device but a collaborative ecosystem of multiple hardware types. He argued that every device has inherent physical limitations, making a multi-device approach necessary for covering all life scenarios. Meanwhile, tech blogger Eugene Wei suggested that "context is king," asserting that the winning device will be the one that can best leverage a user's personal data—habits, history, and social connections—to provide proactive assistance.

The Case for a New Interface

Cai Guoxiang, co-founder of AI glasses manufacturer Rokid, presented a more optimistic forecast, predicting that glasses will become a primary personal interface alongside phones within the next 3 to 5 years. In this vision, the smartphone would evolve into a "mobile host" or "edge host" for the glasses.

Ad

Cai emphasized that glasses offer a fundamentally different interaction model centered on voice commands, which is more natural for a wearable device. He highlighted their unique ability to perceive and interpret the physical world, enabling applications like real-time translation, food calorie identification, and navigation assistance for the visually impaired. According to Cai, Rokid's products are already available in 166 countries, and the company has observed a trend of users reducing phone screen time in favor of glasses.

Growth Tempered by Market Reality

The debate is unfolding against a backdrop of rapid but lopsided market growth. While the sector is expanding quickly, it remains dwarfed by the scale of the smartphone industry.

• Strong Growth: Data from Lotto Technology showed that in the first half of 2026, smart glasses sales in China surged 85.5% year-over-year to 909,000 units. A report from Ries Strategy Consulting noted that Meta shipped 7.4 million AI glasses globally in 2025, capturing an estimated 85% market share.
• Scale Disparity: Despite this growth, the numbers are a fraction of the smartphone market. IDC reported global smartphone shipments of approximately 1.26 billion units in 2025, compared to just 7.11 million smart glasses in the first half of 2026.
• Warning Signs: Furthermore, IDC data revealed a potential slowdown, with China's smart glasses market experiencing its first-ever decline in Q2 2026, when shipments fell 8.0% year-over-year to 611,000 units.

While the AI glasses market is clearly gaining momentum, its ability to challenge the smartphone's dominance is far from certain. The coming years will be a critical test to see whether these new devices can evolve from a niche product into a mainstream personal computing platform.