U.S. Tiger Securities Declares New Bitcoin Bull Market, Sets $250,000 Price Target

Brokerage firm U.S. Tiger Securities said in a new analyst note that Bitcoin has entered a "new bull-market regime," leading it to maintain a Buy rating and issue a cycle price target of $250,000 to be reached by 2029 or earlier. The assessment marks a significant shift from the firm's previous "late-bear-market" classification from July.

Technical Strength and Policy Resilience

According to analyst Bo Pei, the upgraded outlook is based on technical indicators including a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, as well as a price recovery above key investor cost bases. The note highlighted Bitcoin's resilience against recent policy headwinds, including a Federal Reserve rate hike, which it said failed to break the asset's established uptrend.

The recovery has pushed Bitcoin's price past its May high of $82,814, representing a 49.1% gain from its July trough, according to the report. The price briefly dipped below the "True Market Mean" near $76,000-$77,000 but held above the short-term-holder cost basis before reclaiming both levels.

ETF Inflows Signal Renewed Demand

A key piece of evidence cited by the firm is a strong resurgence in demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This reversal in capital flows is seen as confirmation that investor demand is recovering alongside the price.

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• Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs totaled $4.20 billion between August 17 and September 21.
• This activity reversed $8.42 billion in net outflows recorded over the eight consecutive weeks from May to early July.
• The $937.3 million inflow on September 21 was the largest single-day figure since the October 2025 cycle peak, the note stated.

Valuation and Macro Context

U.S. Tiger Securities' $250,000 target combines a gold-relative valuation with an on-chain cost-basis analysis. At that price, Bitcoin's network value would reach $5.25 trillion, or approximately 16.9% of gold's estimated market value.

Pei noted that the firm's long-term fiscal thesis remains intact, with persistent government deficits and higher refinancing costs strengthening the case for Bitcoin's "monetary premium." The analyst concluded that the annualized growth required to reach the target is more modest than what was observed in previous market cycles.