Take-Two Named Top Pick at BTIG on High Expectations for Grand Theft Auto VI

Analysts at brokerage firm BTIG have named Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) a top pick, reiterating their Outperform rating and setting a $285 price target ahead of the highly anticipated November 19 launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.

BTIG stated that investor focus on the game's release will likely overshadow the company's first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, as the market seeks further details on the blockbuster title.

Bullish GTA VI Projections

BTIG's bullish stance is underpinned by a street-high bookings estimate of $10.65 billion for Take-Two's fiscal year 2027, a figure that is 25% above the current consensus expectation. This forecast is largely driven by projections for Grand Theft Auto VI.

The firm's model anticipates the game will achieve the following in fiscal 2027:

• Sell 55 million units at an average selling price of $59.
• Generate $3.25 billion in full-game bookings, equivalent to 48% of Take-Two's entire revenue for fiscal 2026.
• Sales are projected to be front-loaded, with 45 million units in the third quarter and 10 million in the fourth quarter.

BTIG's analysis assumes an 80/20 mix between the game's $80 and $100 stock-keeping units (SKUs). The analysts noted this estimate could prove conservative, citing reports of strong early uptake for the premium-priced version of the game.

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Market Demand and Lingering Questions

Early signs point to significant consumer demand. BTIG highlighted a report from a French retailer indicating that pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI in its first 24 hours were six times higher than those for other major game franchises.

Despite the optimism, the firm noted that several key questions for investors remain unanswered. These include the launch timing for the game's online component, GTA Online, the release date for the PC version, and the expected commercial lifespan of the title.

Broader Portfolio Outlook

Beyond GTA VI, analysts are also monitoring the performance of Take-Two's other major franchise, NBA 2K. According to BTIG, management expects recurrent consumer spending growth for NBA 2K to decelerate significantly to a high-single-digit percentage in fiscal 2027, a sharp slowdown from the robust 30%+ growth seen in fiscal 2026.

BTIG anticipates that Take-Two's overall recurrent consumer spending growth will face headwinds in the second half of fiscal 2027. The firm believes the launch of GTA VI will inevitably capture market share from the rest of the industry, including from Take-Two's own portfolio of games.