SpaceX Preps for First Orbital Starship Flight Amid AI Power Crunch, Evercore Says

SpaceX is preparing for a landmark orbital flight of its Starship vehicle while simultaneously confronting significant energy supply challenges for its artificial intelligence ambitions, according to a research note from Evercore. The firm highlights a recent FCC filing for "Flight 14," which it identifies as the program's first orbital test, a crucial pivot from technology demonstration to operational deployment for its Starlink satellite constellation.

Starship's Orbital Milestone

The upcoming flight represents a major inflection point for the Starship program. According to Evercore, a successful orbital mission would mark the moment Starship begins adding usable Starlink capacity, rather than solely proving out its launch technology. This transition is critical for the expansion and financial viability of SpaceX's global satellite internet service.

AI Ambitions Face Power Constraints

While its launch program advances, SpaceX's terrestrial operations face a potential bottleneck. Evercore points to recent comments from CEO Elon Musk to G20 technology ministers, where he described a looming "crisis of power" for AI, citing electricity—not semiconductor availability—as the primary binding constraint.

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This concern is reflected in SpaceX's strategy, including its development of a turbine casting foundry in Bastrop, Texas. However, Evercore views this as a long-term solution, likely not coming online until 2028 or later. In the interim, the firm suggests that mobile power generation and purchased turbines will serve as a bridge to support the planned 2027 compute ramp.

Operational and Expansion Scrutiny

SpaceX's data center operations are also under increased scrutiny following the replacement of several key leaders and reports of reliability issues at existing facilities. Evercore notes these developments raise questions about whether the company can maintain its rapid pace of development while building the redundancy and resilience required by large-scale external customers.

On the international front, recent Starlink developments in the UAE, Europe, and Uganda underscore the complexity of global expansion. The progress illustrates that the opportunity unfolds one market at a time, with each region presenting unique regulatory or logistical bottlenecks.