OPEC+ Expected to Hold Oil Production Policy Steady at Sunday Meeting, Sources Say

The OPEC+ alliance is expected to maintain its current oil output policy for October when it meets this Sunday, according to three sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters. The decision would keep production steady as the group completes the unwinding of a previous supply cut and shifts its focus to contentious negotiations over future quotas.

No Changes Expected for October

The online meeting will involve seven core members of the producer group: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. The sources indicated that the virtual session, scheduled to begin at 1100 GMT, will likely conclude with no adjustments to near-term production targets.

This month, the group is completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day (bpd) supply cut that was first agreed upon in 2023. However, a separate, larger layer of production cuts remains in place for most of the 21-country group and is set to run until the end of 2026.

Market Context and Production Levels

While official quotas have been rising for most of this year, actual output has lagged behind the planned increases. Geopolitical factors, including wars in Iran and Ukraine, have disrupted exports from key producers like Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Gulf, limiting the group's direct influence on market prices, Reuters reported.

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OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. The group's de facto leaders, Saudi Arabia and Russia, did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

Focus Shifts to 2027 Baselines

With the 1.65 million bpd cut fully unwound, the alliance's attention is turning to establishing new production baselines for 2027. These baselines are critical as they form the foundation for setting individual country quotas in the future.

An external review of members' production capacity is being conducted by the firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton, with a report expected to be submitted to OPEC at the end of September. The findings could pave the way for difficult negotiations, as some members like Iraq have pushed for higher quotas to reflect their increased capacity. This issue was a key factor in the United Arab Emirates' decision to leave OPEC in May 2026.