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Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Ceasefire Expires, Mideast Tensions Mount

ENTHMSVIIDZHZH-TWJAKOHI
Aug 18, 20261 min read
Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Ceasefire Expires, Mideast Tensions Mount

Summary

Crude oil benchmarks edged higher after a US-Iran ceasefire agreement lapsed, with fresh threats from Washington regarding the Strait of Hormuz renewing concerns over potential supply disruptions.

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Background

Oil prices ticked higher in Asian trading on Tuesday, holding near recent highs as the expiration of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stoked fears of a supply crunch.

As of 9:06 p.m. ET, Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were up 0.3% at $91.09 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, rose 0.4% to $84.85 per barrel, according to pricing data from Investing.com.

Geopolitical Risks Escalate

The gains followed a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump that Washington would not seek to extend a ceasefire with Iran that expired on Monday. The original agreement was signed in mid-June.

President Trump also reiterated claims that the U.S. maintains full control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil shipments. Iran has disputed this assertion. The escalating rhetoric has added a significant risk premium to crude prices, as markets brace for potential conflict.

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Strait of Hormuz in Focus

Adding to market uncertainty, President Trump threatened to bomb Oman if the country "interferes," though the specific reason for the warning was not immediately clear, according to the report. Oman has reportedly been mediating talks with Iran to secure safe passage for shipping through the Strait.

Prior to the current conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was the transit route for approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Key takeaways include:

  • Commercial shipping traffic through the strait remains significantly below pre-conflict levels due to the persistent threat of attacks.
  • While talks between Iran and Oman had previously eased some supply concerns, the lack of a formal agreement and new U.S. threats have reversed that sentiment.
  • A prolonged disruption in the Strait would have severe implications for global energy supplies and prices.

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