Northrop Grumman Options Market Prices in 4.8% Post-Earnings Move

Options market data suggests Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) shares could see a move of approximately 4.8% in either direction following the company's upcoming earnings release. The defense contractor is scheduled to report its financial results on July 21 before the market opens, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.

Historical Volatility vs. Expectations

This implied move, derived from the pricing of options contracts, serves as a market-based forecast for the stock's potential volatility. For investors, this figure provides a benchmark for the expected reaction to the earnings announcement.

However, an analysis of the past eight earnings periods reveals a pattern of higher-than-expected volatility. Northrop Grumman's stock price has moved more than the amount suggested by options in six of those eight quarters, indicating a tendency for the company's results or guidance to surprise investors.

Past Earnings Reactions

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The discrepancy between implied and actual moves has been significant in recent quarters. Most notably, the stock fell 10.3% in April after options had priced in a 4.9% move. A similar outsized reaction occurred in April 2025, when the stock dropped 13.4% against an implied move of just 2.8%.

A look at the last eight quarters shows the following post-earnings performance:

• April 2026: -10.3% (actual) vs. 4.9% (implied)
• January 2026: +1.8% (actual) vs. 4.0% (implied)
• October 2025: -3.2% (actual) vs. 1.9% (implied)
• July 2025: +8.2% (actual) vs. 4.8% (implied)
• April 2025: -13.4% (actual) vs. 2.8% (implied)
• January 2025: -3.8% (actual) vs. 1.0% (implied)
• October 2024: -1.5% (actual) vs. 1.6% (implied)
• July 2024: +6.9% (actual) vs. 3.5% (implied)